The model is now accounting for somewhat below average secular growth for the next 3 to 5 years. If Trump is able to create a fairer political/trade regime, it would almost certainly be a plus for secular earnings growth. Plus Trump is insisting on a changes in the terms of our trade agreements with Japan and Europe. Clearly, the US/Mexico and South Korean agreements are a step in that direction. There are many ways to look at, what I call, econopolitical risk. However, the point to note is that the risk in mutual fund investment is lower that of investing directly in the underlying securities. Nonetheless, my bottom line is that I, perhaps foolishly, remain hopeful that the Donald’s current negotiating strategy will pay off; however, the risks and rewards associated with failure and success are very high. CuisineIn any event, the food of which you serve your guests is paramount to the overall success of the meal.

I used to use computer software (Microsoft Money and Quicken) but am doing things by hand now. Taj is now evaluating the Colombo property to decide which brand to place it under. Purchases of long term investments such as land, equipment or property will also be viewed as an investment. The political stability and transparent single tier tax regime which, does not tax capital gains, are other factors that encourage foreign investment in Singapore Property. Bottom line: a new regulatory regime plus an improvement in our trade policies should have a positive impact on secular growth and, hence, equity valuations. Just a reminder that the Year End Fair Value number is based on the long term secular growth of the earning power of productive capacity of the US economy not the near term cyclical influences. As a reminder, my Portfolio’s cash position didn’t reach its current level as a result of the Valuation Models estimate of Fair Value for the Averages. In short, the economy is not a negative but it not a positive at current valuation levels. Making matters worse, monetary policy, sooner or later, will have to correct the mispricing and misallocation of assets—and that will be a negative for the Market.

On the other hand, I believe that fiscal policy will have an opposite effect on economic growth. I could have paid up to buy more shares but the returns were very low (1-6% with 3% being probable) so didn’t want to risk it. You’ll need to demonstrate to your accomplice that you can run quicker, bounce higher, and be more grounded that they think. The Fed raised rates again this week and its forward guidance was to expect more hikes and a continuation of the run off of its balance sheet. The risk with liquidations is that they can run longer than what seems reasonable. I was exclusively involved in risk arbitrage and liquidations last year. I was satisfied with the risk arbitrage positions. It’s also fine to do risk management outside the model which would of course be exogenous. However, even if tax reform proves to be a positive, the math in our Valuation Model still shows that equities are way overpriced. Our Valuation Model assumptions may be changing depending on the aforementioned economic tradeoffs impacting our Economic Model.

The figures below may be slightly different from final actual numbers. Do note that this is a weighted towards large-cap stocks so if you invest in smaller companies then you may want to pick another index. The beauty of compounding will only happen near the tail end and then it will make the Average looks attractive. Then we are here to help. Plus there are hints from the Banks of China and Japan that some tightening is occurring or will occur in the near future. While not removing excess liquidity in the global money supply, it will not be contributing to it. Finally, the emerging markets continue to experience dollar funding issues—clear evidence that global money supply is shrinking and interest rates are rising. The great Albert Einstein once said “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. 33.3USD. Of course if the dollar weakens the converse is true. Weather will be a major factor for you to consider when you reach retirement age.

Some will succeed in their plans while for some it will turn out to be as daunting task. Unlike the city, one has to pay huge money while residing or working in a city. While there are a number of options for buying gold, silver, and their mining stocks it is best to analyze them using the GLD for gold, SLV for silver, and GDX and GDXJ for miners. I’d also point out that the number of stocks you own is not necessarily a good barometer of diversification. My portfolio returned around 5.8% in 2016. The return isn’t very good and I underperformed the indexes. Since I started seriously investing after a few years of absence, here is how my portfolio performed in 2016. I didn’t make any long-term investments and didn’t have any from before so it is sort of an unusual portfolio. I only started researching stocks for part of last year so didn’t do much.